Tuesday, October 27, 2009

The importance of how we view statistics

In the article, “The median isn’t the Message” by Stephen Jay Gould, statistics is discussed in a not so usual way. The author, Stephen Jay Gould, had been diagnosed with abdominal mesothelioma. The first thing he wanted to know was to read the usual statistics about the diagnosed disease. When he did so, he found that mesothelioma has a “median mortality of only eight months after discovery.” Because, he was an intellectual and his technical training had taught him, he understood what “median mortality” meant. To any of us, it could have meant a totally different thing. Like Gould says, “I suspect that most people, without training in statistics, would read such a statement as "I will probably be dead in eight months.” Gould on the other hand knew what this meant which was that half of the diagnosed patients could live longer than the other half. This is when he instead of panicking started to work on being a part of that “other” half of patients.

This is true in statistics. People can go very different ways. A median and mean signify and can determine very different things. Yes, they have something in common but they certainly do not mean the same thing at all. In the article, Gould jokes, “A politician in power might say with pride the mean income of our citizens is $15,000 per year. The leader of the opposition might retort, but half our citizens make less than $10,000 per year." This particular joke explains everything. The mean and median show different views of a situation.

The reason why it is important to be careful when using statistics to describe something in particular is because not everyone will understand what you mean. Therefore, people can be taking that statistic completely the wrong way. For example in the article mentioned above, a statistic could really become something very crucial to someone. It is important to be knowledgeable and informed on what those statistics mean or what they could be representing for a certain individual.

Another way that statistics can trick us is when using randomness. In the article, “The triumph of the random” by Leonard Mlodinow, he talks about the misconceptions of the random variables. People find themselves doubting whether the victory of Joe DiMaggio was either luck or probability. Leonard says, “We find false meaning in the patterns of randomness for good reason: we are animals built to do just that.” This is true. It could be dangerous to make an investment on something we do not quite understand, and it could also be devastating to see someone as a failure just because they did not succeed. Leonard cited in his article, “Extraordinary events, both good and bad, can happen without extraordinary causes, and so it is best to always remember the other factor that is always present—the factor of chance.”

These two articles talk about a main subject in our class which is statistics. The first one by Stephen Gould is about how the mean is sometimes related to the median. However, we need to understand that they are not the same thing. Extreme values can alter the mean, but will not alter the median. We have spoken about this in our class as well. Gould’s life could have been seen as an example of how someone can interpret a certain statistic in a completely different way. He chose to learn about his disease and manage it; he was able to be in the half that lived longer than 8 months. Others, however, did not understand what that statistic meant and assumed that they only had 8 months to live. This could have affected them mentally and could have been an added factor to their death.

The second article also tells us to be careful when using statistics. Randomness could mean very different things as well. It could really be that one is performing well or it could also mean that one just got lucky. Luck vs. probability. Many argue this, while others support it. Whichever really is, it should not matter to us. People can still be remembered no matter what they did or achieved. If loved, they will stand out in the memory of their loved ones.

We all view things differently which means we will decide to act on things differently as well. We are free to choose what to believe and how to do it. However, when it comes to using statistics we should be careful and look at all the possible outcomes. One should know that there are two ways an investment could go. It could either go very well and give you a big win or end up at a big loss. Whether it comes to understand the statistic well or luck vs. probability, we need to be focused and open to the worldview. This is the only way one would be able to beat our own statistics.